Showing 18 results for ghavidel
Volume 8, Issue 1 (4-2008)
Abstract
The goal of this paper is to examine Impact of the economical, cultural and Environmental variables such as unemployment rate, educational level and Share of rural, on the Iran self-employment rate.
We use panel information data for all provinces in Iran. Using data provided by the 1996 - 2003 period from central statistic of Iran. We find for most provinces there is negative relationship between the unemployment rate and Self- employment rate, and negative for educational level. Thus unemployment and Self-employment are alternative for together in Iran Labour Market. In Iran, increase of educational cause the promotion employment in public or wage sector. Other result in case of Iran is Positive effect on Self-employment rate such as share of rural population. However, in this paper I argue that Self-employment sector have to high employment capacity in Iran Labour market.
Volume 9, Issue 2 (Fall & Winter 2006)
Abstract
The present research aimed at studing the roles and effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Atmospheric and oceanic Circulation phenomenon in the changeability of inter seasonal spring rainfalls in East Azerbaijan Province of Iran. The results of applying Pearson analysis indicated positive and significant correlations between Nino1+2 and Nino3 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) indices and spring precipitation in the stations under study, which is an indicative of the increase in spring precipitation during the occurrence of El Niño (positive or warm phase in ENSO), and precipitation reduction during the negative or La Niña (cold phase). Also, the results showed that the maximum correlation of spring precipitation with the ENSO SST indices existed in Mianeh and Maragheh Stations and the minimum correlation was in Sarab Station. The calculated correlation coefficient rates between the spring precipitation and ENSO SST indices indicated the effect of latitude (geographical factors) on the amount of affectedness from ENSO, meaning that in East Azerbaijan, the amount of correlation increases from east to west and from north to south, the maximum of which can be seen in Mianeh Station.
Volume 11, Issue 0 (Special issue 2007)
Abstract
This paper used the relevant data to study the frequency of thunderstorm occurrence in Tabriz as a sample of North West Iran’s climate. Where required, the methods such as Spearman rank correlation, linear and sixth order polynomial trend, as well as the cluster analysis according to the average linkage (within group) has also been applied utilizing the block distance standard for the monthly classification of the thunderstorm occurrence. The obtained results showed that the month of May, during various monthly time scales, and the spring season in seasonal intervals, undergo the majority of thunderstorm occurrences. The methodological statistics show that, secondary climatic features like hails, heavy showers, floods, and lightening are dominant climatic features in Tabriz during the thunderstorm occurrence. The above-mentioned climatic hazards are part of the characteristics of Tabriz climate and all of North West Iran, which bring about many economic, social and environmental damages, particularly for the farmers and animals farms. The probability distribution of thunderstorm occurrence in Tabriz indicates the irreversibility of their occurrence chiefly in short time return periods. Therefore, thunderstorms and their resulting secondary features are regarded to be a permanent hazard in Tabriz.
Volume 11, Issue 3 (10-2011)
Abstract
Using Haskel theory, in this paper the main factors of change in wage ratios of agricultural and non-agricultural labor force are explored. Theoretically, the wage gap between these two sectors is explained by the gap between price and the one between TFP of these two sectors. In recent years, the wage gap between the two sectors has been decreasing in Iran. The international trade model (Haskel model) has been used in this paper and the results reveal that the major factor contributing to wage gap is the price one. The TFP is considered insignificant for wage gap. Mainly, the reason for increasing agricultural product index price, compared to that of non-agricultural index price has been government protection of agricultural products during these years.
Volume 12, Issue 1 (Spring & Summer 2008)
Abstract
In this research, the data relating to global land/oceans temperature anomalies and annual mean precipitation of Tabriz station were used for the period of 1951-2005. The main methodologies used in this research include the Pearson correlation coefficient method, analysis of trend component of time series, simple linear and polynomial regression (as a semi-linear model) and Artificial Neural Networks methods. The results of applying Pearson analysis indicated a significant negative and an inverse correlation between global land/oceans temperature anomalies and annual precipitation in Tabriz station. This is an indicative of increase in precipitation and occurrence of wet years during the negative global temperature anomalies and, on contrary, precipitation reduction and occurrence of droughts during the positive global temperature anomalies. The analysis of long term trend components of time series showed that the annual mean precipitation of Tabriz has a decreasing trend towards the length of the period, but annual global land/oceans temperature anomalies has an increasing trend towards the length of the period. Also we simulated the relationships between annual precipitation in Tabriz station and global warming using Artificial Neural Networks.
Applying of different methods recognized artificial neural network as a better and more accurate simulation model compared to the other models applied in this research, i.e. simple regression model, and semiـ linear polynomial regression with the power of 6 models. Different artificial neural network methods were used to demonstrate this relation, among which the
Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) with three hidden layers analysis with back propagation learning algorithm showed excellent capability in predicting the correlation between the series.
Hossein Ghanad Zadeh, Behrooz Abbasi, Malihe ghavidel, Nima Emami,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (5-2016)
Abstract
Reyhaneh Ahmad Zade ghavidel, Hadi Askari, Mahdi Ghiyafe Davoodi,
Volume 13, Issue 57 (0-0)
Abstract
Walnut (Juglans regia. L) belongs to juglandaceae, is a native fruit of Iran. Walnut is a rich source of unsaturated fatty acids like omega-3 and contains high levels of vitamin E, polyphenols, flavonoids, arginine and fiber. On the other hand, walnut causes many positive effects on human health that makes it worth. In this study, we used downgrade walnut to processing it to the walnut drink as a new drink that is nutritious and healthy. For production of walnut drink carrageenan gum addition was investigated. In this regard, carrageenan gum was added in three levels 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9% and the effect of carrageenan gum addition on walnut beverage was investigated. The effects of gum on pH, Brix, Acidity and total sugars were analyzed and overall acceptability was evaluated by Hedonic scale. Walnut drink color was estimated and analyzed by Image J software. Based on the results, the carrageenan gum addition at level 0.6%, were effective on physicochemical characteristics and quality improving at P<0.05. Sensory analysis showed that, carrageenan gum addition had a significant effect on walnut drink stabilization. Statistical analysis showed that the increasing of gum causes L* index to be declined. The effect of gum on b* and a* indicated that treatments contained less gum inclined more towards yellow and less green respectively.
Volume 14, Issue 1 (Spring 2010)
Abstract
Arctic Oscillations (AO) are regarded as the influential factors in the changing climatic pattern of winters in northern hemisphere. In this research, we studied the relationship between winter severity in Tabriz and the climatic pattern using the data for winter climatic variables and the Sea Level Pressure (SLP) fluctuations index in the Arctic Ocean. The Spearman rank correlation was applied in order to find the relationship between the winter severity and the pattern. The results indicated the existence of a teleconnection correlation. After the calculation of the Winter Severity Index (WSI) for Tabriz, its polynomial trend was graphed, which shows a reducing trend indicating a reduction in the severity of winters and changing into temperate climate in Tabriz. Other reason for such a reduction is the declining trend of climatic factors like the number of snowy and freezing days, as well as the increasing trend of winter temperature. Based on the significant correlation between the AO Index and the climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, snowy days and WSI, we might attribute the AO to the severity and/or temperateness of winters in Tabriz.
Maryam Ahmadi ghavidelan, Reza Amiri Chayjan,
Volume 14, Issue 64 (6-2016)
Abstract
In this study, hazelnut kernels were dried in an infrared dryer with microwave pretreatment. To determine the optimization conditions of the hazelnut samples, response surface methodology and central composite design were used to investigate the effect of temperature levels (45, 65 and 85 ° C), infrared power levels (500, 1000 and 1500 W) and microwave power levels (270, 450 and 630 W) on drying of hazelnut kernels. The adequacy and accuracy of the fitted models (Lack of Fit and R2) were checked with analysis of variance (ANOVA). Response surfaces and contour plots were created to show the interaction between the independent and the response variables. Based on the experiments, the optimum conditions for the highest values of effective moisture diffusivity and L* (color index) and the lowest values of consumption energy, shrinkage and a*, b* (color indices) were determined at air temperature of 45°C, microwave power of 470.86 W and infrared power of 1316.72 W. The optimum values of the response variables affecting the effective moisture diffusivity, consumption energy, shrinkage, L*, a* and b* were obtained 2.35×10-9 m2 s-1, 2.65 kWh, 12.94%, 54.10, 14.97 and 16.70, respectively.
Mehdi Ghiafeh Davoodi, Mahdi Karimi, Fariba Naghipour, Zahra Sheikholeslami, Adel Mirmajidi, Reihaneh Ahmadzadeh ghavidel,
Volume 16, Issue 90 (August 2019)
Abstract
In recent years, synchronous with the development and diversification of bread production, have expanded various processing methods, as well as the co processes (additives). One of the traditional products that have been welcomed by consumers for many years in eastern Asia due to the simplicity of raw materials and ease of using is roti bread. Therefore, in the present study, has been investigated the use of baking methods, such as hot-electric plates and rotary oven and compare them with the traditional method and so on is evaluated using of guar, carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC) and Carrageenan hydrocolloids (each one 0.5%) in roti bread formulation in a completely randomized double factorial arrangement test (P≤0.05). The results of this study clearly showed that application of hot-electric plates for baking along with addition of both CMC and guar gum in the formulation, had effect on the moisture content and crust L* value and in this regard the effect of CMC gum was higher than guar gum. Also, based on the results, it was found that the sample produced by the hot-electric plates containing CMC gum had the least firmness of the texture during 2 and 72 hours after baking, as well as one week after baking (P≤0.05). Finally, tasting the samples, the panelists introduced the samples produced with hot-electric plates containing CMC gum and samples produced with hot-electric plates containing guar gum as the best samples.
Volume 17, Issue 6 (8-2017)
Abstract
In this paper, a novel dynamical model is proposed for the multi-input multi-output electrically driven robot manipulators, by an observer-based robust adaptive fuzzy controller. The proposed control scheme utilizes current control effort, which is more efficient than the torque control approach. The proposed method is very simple, accurate and robust. Based on the adaptive fuzzy system an observer-based estimator is presented that uses feedback error function as the input of fuzzy system to approximate and adaptively compensate the unknown uncertainties and external disturbance of the system under control. Although the proposed controller scheme requires the uncertainties to be bounded, it does not require this bound to be known. An H_∞ robust controller is employed to an attenuate the residual error to the desired level and recompenses the both fuzzy approximation errors and observer errors. The proposed method guarantees the stability of the closed-loop system based on the Strictly Positive Real (SPR) condition and Lyapunov theory. The proposed control scheme is not limited only for controlling of robotics vehicles, it can be applied for a class of nonlinear MIMO systems. Finally, in simulation study, to demonstrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the proposed technique, a two-link robot manipulator system is employed.
Amir Khadang Nikfarjam, Elham Mahdian, Reihaneh Ahmadzadeh ghavidel, Reza Karazhyan,
Volume 19, Issue 127 (September 2022)
Abstract
The aim of this study was to identify the lactic acid of the dominant bacteria in pickled garlic, using initial biochemical tests and PCR technique and to investigate their potential probiotic potential. For this purpose, to determine the probiotic potential of these isolates, some confirmatory tests including resistance to acid, resistance to simulated gastric conditions, resistance to bile salts, activity against pathogenic bacteria, susceptibility to some common antibiotics and hemolytic activity of isolates were performed. Based on BLAST results, five isolates of Lactobacillus plantarum, two isolates as Pediococcus ethanolidurans and one isolate as Lactobacillus brevis were identified. The lactic acid bacteria isolated in this study had the ability to survive at pH 2.5, grow in medium containing 0.3% bile salt, were sensitive to antibiotics and lacked hemolytic activity and therefore have probiotic properties. Supernatant of isolates of this study in high concentrations had the ability to inhibit growth of pathogenic bacteria and the lethal activity against them. Finally, the isolates of this study can be added to other products in the future as a strain with probiotic potential.
Volume 20, Issue 3 (Fall 2016)
Abstract
Synoptic analysis of the structure of heat waves in Khuzestan province is the main purpose of the present study. Statistical and synoptic analysis and dynamic downscaling technique were used to identify the atmospheric circulation structure in the time of the emergence of a heat wave in the area. To this end, daily maximum temperature during the warm period (June to September) for 13 synoptic stations in the southwest of Iran with different statistical length were taken from the Iran Meteorological Organization.
Based on the statistical analysis results, 1 July 2000 was identified as the hottest day in the selected hottest heat wave in the period of study, and therefore this day was selected for exact investigation and dynamic downscaling.
The results of synoptic analysis showed that the intense subsidence heating that occurred in the selected day had two causes: At the surface of the earth, a low pressure situation with the origin in thermal low pressures of the Gange, Arabian Peninsula and Persian Gulf and West Asians independent subtropical high pressure at 500 hpa level; and warm air advection fluxes to the study area, both in low latitudes and Iran dry areas. The RegCM4 dynamic downscaling results indicated that at the earth surface, there is a strong low pressure on the Zagros and there exists a strong typical ridge at upper levels. This strong typical ridge caused dry adiabatic subsidence and created intense heating. This study revealed that the Zagros high Pressure (ridge) has obvious role in the emergence of heat waves and intensification in Khuzestan.
Volume 20, Issue 3 (10-2020)
Abstract
Pervious concrete is a concrete that, given its high porosity, allows higher rates of water infiltration through it. Although asphalt and concrete pavements have high structural and durability capabilities, they have a considerable high impact on the environment in terms of environmental as well as acoustic noise production. One of these problems are the drastic decrease in rainwater penetration to the ground and the consequent flooding disasters in the cities, which can lead to significant financial and life damage. On the other hand, surface clay pollution runoff can lead to clogging and take negative impact at effective permeability of such concrete. Thus making the most important feature of this concrete, which is high permeability, would be accompanied by some difficulties. In this study, using silica fume, it’s been tried to make a permeable concrete in order to have desirable mechanical properties, high permeability and less clogging. In addition, with the use of leca and scoria lightweight aggregates, the specific gravity of pervious concrete was significantly reduced to help noise pollution reduction by increasing internal and structural porosity. The results showed that the samples containing leca has a better performance in mechanical tests. Specimens containing scoria aggregates have higher porosity and permeability, which both have high importance in pervious concrete. Replacing 10% of cement by silica fume improved the mechanical properties of the specimens. In all cases, the samples showed acceptable permeability for slurry passage even at high concentrations, but the difference between the 10% clay suspension compared to clay-free water was significant, while the hydraulic conductivity decrease rate was much lower with increasing the concentration of clay.
Volume 21, Issue 4 (10-2021)
Abstract
This study presents a statistical analysis on the prediction of compressive strength of steel fiber reinforced self-compacting concrete (SFRSCC) based on pull-off test results using linear and nonlinear regression models. For this purpose, an extensive experimental program was conducted including different cement contents and aggregate sizes along with steel fiber contents of 0, 30, 50 and 80 kg/m
3. 50 mm and 70 mm diameters aluminum and steel discs with different thicknesses were supplied. Moreover, the effect of partial core depth on pull-off strength was examined. In order to assess the SFRSCC characteristics which may be affected the pull-off test on SFRSCC, two levels of cement content of 400 and 500 kg/m
3 were considered. The water/cement ratio (W/C) was kept constant at 0.45 for all the mixes studied. For each level, two maximum aggregate sizes of 10 and 20 mm containing steel fiber contents of 0, 30, 50 and 80 kg/m
3 (Volume fractions,
Vf , of 0, 0.38, 0.64 and 1%) were taken into account. The fresh properties are in the range of 600-700 mm for slump flow diameters, 2.2-3.5 s for T
50 and 550-620 mm for the J-ring test without segregation of aggregate near the edges of the spread-out (VSI of 1 and 1.5). Therefore, it can be stated that all concrete mixtures can be considered as SCC.
The effects of the SFRSCC properties and practical parameters of pull-off test are included in the proposed equations as dimensionless variables. The results showed that both linear and nonlinear regression models have high ability as a reliable tool for prediction of compressive strength of SFRSCC on the basis of pull-off testing so that about 80% of the variation in response value can be explained by the fitted models. Also, validation of the evolved models has been verified with the results obtained in the previous works. It has been demonstrated that the performance of the proposed models can be acceptable with reasonable accuracy. The linear models show the trend to overestimate the compressive strength. By considering the results, 86% and 52% of the data are overestimated by linear models related to aluminum and steel discs, respectively. However, this behavior is
less pronounced for nonlinear relationships so that the corresponding values are found to be 58% and 50%, respectively.
The validity of the derived models has been verified with the results obtained by Madandoust [8] and Long and Murray [9]. It can be derived that the performance of the introduced models may be acceptable with sensible degree of accuracy. According to the results, it is clear that there is not a considerable difference between the curves and also between the models, especially for higher values of pull-off test. However, it can be generally distinguished that the nonlinear models have slightly better performance compared to the linear models, especially for steel disc which is favorably close to the results obtained by Long and Murray [9].
It should be stated that based on the large number of data and range of the variables used in this study, it may be possible to claim that the proposed models are robust with regard to the possibility of its use in various scenarios so that these models have no experience concerning to the unseen findings by others. Nevertheless, it must be borne in mind that different relationships may be expected to be reasonably developed for different types of concretes such as high-strength and lightweight.
Volume 22, Issue 3 (Autumn 2022 2022)
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to investigate the effects of macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, interest rate, economic growth and real money residual growth on the financial stability in the Iranian insurance industry. For this purpose, Markov switching method is used. The ability to account for changes in the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the financial stability of the insurance industry over time is one of the most important features of the Markov switching method. The period under study is from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2015. The results show that the effects of macroeconomic variables during the first regime (including the first quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2008) and the second regime (including the fourth quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2015) on financial stability of the insurance industry are different. So that the effects of exchange rate, interest rate and economic growth on the financial stability of the insurance industry in the first regime are the opposite of those of the second regime. This is while the growth of the real balance of money has a direct link to the financial stability of the insurance industry in each round of the regime, but in the second regime, which is a recessionary regime, its effect on financial stability is insignificant. Also, the findings show that the stability of the first regime is more than the second regime, so that if the insurance industry is in regime one in the previous period, with a probability of 94% it will be again in regime one.
Volume 24, Issue 1 (spring 2024)
Abstract
Introduction:
Iran's economy will become bigger in the coming years and the GDP will increase every year. Therefore, the economy will need more labor force, which is provided through population growth. Now this question is raised, will population growth be enough for Iran's future economic growth?
During the last 50 years, the situation of Iran's labor market has been such that the supply has increased over the demand, so unemployment has been one of the chronic problems of Iran. For example, the active population in 2021 was about 25.8 million people, of which 2.3 million were unemployed and 23.5 million were employed, that is, the unemployment rate was 9.2% (Statistical Center of Iran, Results of the 2021 Labor Force Survey Plan), but the population outlook in Iran shows major changes in the coming years. This research shows that in the future, the labor market of Iran will not experience unemployment, rather the possibility of labor force shortage will not be surprising. In this article, the supply of and demand for labor in Iran are estimated until 2050, then the gap between the two is predicted.
Methodology:
To predict the labor supply, first, the population by age has been estimated using the cohort method until 2050. Then we consider two scenarios for the labor force participation rate. First, it is assumed that the labor force participation rate will be constant until the year 2050. Second, it is assumed that the participation rate will increase along the trend of "average years of education of women". With the availability of the participation rate and the working age population (15-64), the active population has been estimated until 2050.
The demand for labor is estimated according to the production elasticity of employment. With the assumption of this elasticity and the assumption of economic growth at least level for Iran's economy, labor demand is predicted. The average production elasticity of employment in Iran is about 0.7, which means that with economic growth of 1%, the demand for labor increases by 0.7%. Assuming that this elasticity is constant until 2050 and considering the scenario for economic growth (minimum economic growth), the labor demand is estimated for the next 30 years.
Findings:
A realistic scenario that predicts the labor force participation rate in line with the trend of "average years of education for women", the active population is predicted to be 30.35 million in 2050. On the other hand, by using the output elasticity of employment and two scenarios for Iran's economic growth, the demand for the labor force has been predicted until 2050. Assuming an average economic growth, 2.6% per year and an output elasticity, 0.7, the demand for labor in 2050 is predicted to be around 40.26 million people. With a realistic scenario, the results show that there is unemployment in Iran until 2030, although the trend is decreasing. In 2030, unemployment will reach zero, which means labor supply and demand will be equal. From 2030 onwards, the excess demand for the labor force begins with an increasing trend, so that in 2050 the excess demand for the labor force reaches about 10 million people.
Discussion and Conclusion:
In this research, labor supply and demand have been predicted using very conservative and reasonable assumptions. The results show that with a minimum economic growth rate (1% per year) and the maximum increase in the labor force participation rate up to 50% in 2050, there will still be a lack of labor demand. There are three ways to reduce excess demand. The first is to increase productivity. Through improving technology and human capital through education, health, skills, etc., labor productivity can be increased. With the improvement of technology and the use of advanced machines, the use of robots, the mechanization of various economic sectors, and the use of artificial intelligence (IA), the majority of excess demand can be provided. The second is to use of foreign labor. Many countries use the supply excess of foreign labor from countries that face supply excess to offset their excess demand. The third way is to increase the labor force participation rate of women in Iran.
It should be noted that the assumption of other conditions is always met in any forecasting. Among these conditions are sanctions, oil exports, technology, environmental changes, and so forth. For example, if the sanctions are lifted, Iran's economic growth can up to 7 percent annually. Higher economic growth leads to higher demand for labor, and excess demand occurs sooner. Therefore, changing any of the unexpected factors in the future can increase or decrease the forecast of supply and demand.
Volume 27, Issue 2 (Summer 2023)
Abstract
This paper intends to identify and statistically analyze monthly changes in the lethal temperature above 50 degrees Celsius (TU50c) in the Northern Hemisphere. For this purpose, the reanalyzed data related to the maximum temperature up to two meters of the earth's surface was used during the period of 73 years from 1948 to 2020, and after adjustment, analyzed on a monthly basis. Descriptive statistics analysis methods, linear trend analysis and non-parametric Mann-Kendall test are used for evaluating the frequency of such occurrences. During the 73-year study period, 9553 days with minimum temperature of 50 degrees Celsius were identified and their coordinates were extracted. Examining the daily frequency of TU50c in the Northern Hemisphere showed that the months of May and January have had the highest frequency, respectively. Also, the highest increasing trend in the number of fatal temperatures was observed in the months of March, April, July and August. In terms of location, the region that could record the highest frequency and the most intense TU50c was related to Africa especially Sudan, West Asia (between Iraq, Southwest of Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia) and India in the Indian subcontinent. Moreover, these temperatures are not rare in America either; but TU50c has not been reported in Europe and East Asia. The highest and most intense temperatures occurred in the fifth decade, between 1988 and 1998.