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Volume 22, Issue 3 (Autumn 2022 2022)
Abstract
The currency fluctuations intensified in Iran from the end of 2017. In order to manage the foreign exchange market, from the beginning of 2018, the government economic staff allocated preferential currency at the rate of 42000 Rials per US dollar to basic goods’ imports. The main purpose of this policy was to prevent the spread of currency inflammation to the market of basic goods needed by the people and to benefit the lower income deciles of society. However, today, three years after the implementation of this plan, many experts believe that the implementation of the preferred currency subsidy policy has resulted in high costs and due to failure to control rising prices, has not been able to ensure the stability of target food consumption among households. On the contrary, proponents of this policy believe that the effect of the preferred currency subsidies policy on controlling the growth of product prices in the final market and ultimately household consumption has been significant. Therefore, the question arises here is that whether the subsidy paid in the form of preferred currency policy reaches the final consumer and has a significant effect on his level of consumption? With this approach, the present study evaluates the effect of preferred currency subsidies policy on food consumption in urban areas of Iran. In order to achieve this goal, first, the theoretical model of the present study is explained by applying theoretical foundations in various studies. It is worth mentioning that the information required for the study is collected during the period 2005-2020 and analyzed in the form of PANEL ARDL model. The results show that although the preferred currency subsidies policy has a positive and significant effect on household consumption, but this effect is not remarkable. At the same time, according to the results, the price index of food groups and exchange rate fluctuations have negative effects on food consumption in the short and long term and in contrast, increasing the income of urban households has a positive and significant effect on food consumption in the short and long term. Finally, the results of the error correction model (ECM) show that due to the low speed of adjustment, the effects of currency shocks have high durability in the Iranian economy.
Volume 26, Issue 4 (7-2024)
Abstract
Since the 1960s and the reduction in the share of agricultural sector in GDP in different countries, based on extensive forward and backward linkages of the agricultural sector, the concept of agribusiness has been introduced to explain the valuable contribution of agriculture to the national economy. This paper estimates the share of agribusiness in gross domestic product using input-output tables for 1986, 1991, 2001, and 2016. The results showed that the contribution of agribusinesses to GDP was about 2.5 times that of agricultural production (the average share of agribusinesses in 1986-2016 was about 23%, while the corresponding figure for agricultural value added was 9.25%). In a similar trend to developing and developed countries, the share of agribusinesses in GDP had decreased from 27.2 to 17% in 1986-2016. However, the examination of the components of agribusinesses in Iran compared to other countries shows significant differences, which can be attributed to Iran's arid and semi-arid climate, low rate of capital formation, low productivity of production factors, as well as lack of participation in regional and global chains due to long-term sanctions imposed on the economy.
