Sunflower Production Trends Forecast: ARIMA Time Series Analysis Across Major Global Producers | ||
| Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology | ||
| Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 16 November 2025 PDF (476.78 K) | ||
| Document Type: Original Research | ||
| Authors | ||
| ESRA KADANALI* 1; Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu2 | ||
| 1Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Business Administration Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı, Türkiye | ||
| 2Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics, Atatürk UniversityErzurum, Türkiye | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Forecasting the future production is a critical tool that enables strategic decision-making in agricultural planning and policy development processes. The sunflower is strategically important due to its use in oil production, the food industry, and animal husbandry. In this study, sunflower seed production data from 1961 to 2023 are analysed using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to forecast production levels in major producing countries for the period 2024–2028. The results indicate a continued upward trend in global production, reaching approximately 63.7 Mt (million tonnes) by 2028. Among countries, Russia is projected to lead with 19.7 Mt, followed closely by Ukraine (11.8 Mt) and the combined "Other producers" category (approximately 11.7 Mt). According to the rankings, Argentina leads with 4.7 Mt, followed by China with 2.9 million tonnes, Türkiye and France with 2.4 Mt each, Romania with 2.3 Mt, and Bulgaria with 2.1 Mt. While production growth is projected, the widening of forecast confidence intervals reflects continued susceptibility to climatic variability, geopolitical uncertainties, and market volatility. To enhance food security, policymakers must prioritise adaptive agricultural strategies, robust risk management tools, and improved institutional cooperation. This study presents a country-level ARIMA-based forecast of sunflower production through 2028, offering insights into both global production dynamics and the resilience profiles of individual producing countries. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Agricultural policy, ARIMA forecasting, Leading producer countries, Sunflower production | ||
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